REPUBLICANS OR DEMOCRATS, WHO WEARS THE FINAL CROWN?
Preamble:
The festival is almost here again, November 3, 2020, heralds the US Presidential election. The scramble for power continues. The present-day political party structure in the U.S. is controlled by the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. The Democratic Party was established in 1828, members of the party are often alluded to as “liberals” or “progressives.” The Republican Party was established in 1854 by anti-slavery activist. Members of the Republicans are referred to as “conservatives.”
Though there are other political parties in the United States, but they have not been able to make a notable influence in the government. Some of these parties comprise the Libertarian Party, the Green Party, and the Constitution Party.
Wining against Democrat Hilary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump was voted in US president in 2016. His triumph came after major wins in the battlefield states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Can any Democratic probable winner defeat Trump this time around? This is a very hard nut to crack. There were at one time 24 people in the contest that has sunk to ten. Out of these ten, there are three probable winners. They are Vice President Joe Biden, who has a formidable intent for government reform and anti-corruption policies that will make certain America has a government that works for the people. Joe Biden would be seventy when he took the presidency if he emerges. Is he too old?
Elizabeth Warren unlike Joe Biden who was Barrack Obama’s vice president is very reproving the way the Democrats have conducted themselves in the past. “Far too cozy with corporate interest,” She says. Warren is not fascinated by social justice or the environment, she wants to pardon student debt and have government-funded health care.
Bernie Sanders would be seventy-nine if he became president, is he too old? Is his inferno burning out well? “I’m running for president so that, when we are in the White House, the movement we build together can achieve economic, racial, social and environmental justice for all”, He says.
One rationale why the field is so congested is because of the man they are challenging. Donald Trump pulled down all the rules about what makes a powerful presidential candidate and now everyone thinks they can win the White House. The Democratic Party has one key issue which is they have not concurred on how to try to win against Trump.
Trump on the other hand, as a, sought of upper hand at the moment. Trump is very good at holding on to his base. President Trump started his 2020 re-election campaign with an enormous mega gathering in Orlando, Florida. Donald Trump could be heading for a tough race. The average of opinion polls puts Trump’s rating just above 41%. But the major question remains, who would face Trump?
Trump and the Republican Party:
Primarily all the 2020 political air so far has been dedicated to the growing field of Democratic candidates. Trump has conveyed unquestionably that he will run for a second term. The President made it crystal clear he would run again on the day of his inauguration before he even knew whether or not he would like the job.
One thing Trump has is confidence. But before Trump can clash with someone like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris amongst many others, he must need to contend with another challenge from someone in his Republican Party. Which Republican will run against Trump?
Governor Hogan, a Republican governor condemned the Republican National Committee (RNC) for its move to lessen the consequential possibilities to challenge Trump at a primary election. In his words, “Typically they try to be fair arbiters of a process, and I’ve never seen anything like it and I’ve been involved in the Republican Party for most of my life. It is unprecedented,” he told Politico. “And in my opinion, it is not the way we should be going about our politics. The question is, what are they afraid of?”
President Donald Trump casually began his bid for re-election on February 18, 2017. He was followed by former governor of Massachusetts Bill Weld, who made known his campaign on April 15, 2019, former Illinois congressman Joe Walsh, proclaimed his candidacy on August 25, 2019. Former governor of South Carolina and U.S. representative Mark Sanford launched the third primary challenge on September 8, 2019.
Kansas, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Nevada have all canceled their Republican primaries/caucuses to throw their Republican support behind President Donald Trump. From all indications, Republican Party wants to skip Presidential primaries and that means Trump is in all probability going to be the Presidential candidate of the Republican Party.
The Democrats and Their Divided House:
“And the rain fell, and the floods came, and the winds blew and slammed against that house, and yet it did not fall, for it had been founded on the rock.”
Less than a year to the US Presidential election, the main opposition party in the US is still yet to come to concord on who the party’s flag bearer would be. The Democratic Party of the United States is composed of diverse factions.
It is key that factions in the Democratic Party tackle the issue of their differences sooner rather than later as there is much festering. To win big in 2020 they must coexist. Many on both sides of these major factions are so stuck in their ideologies that they are unlikely to reach a common ground.
It is vitally important that Democrats tackle this head-on lest they will be fighting so much among themselves and that could drag a loss out of what should be a huge win in 2020. Democrats need to build a narrative now. A narrative that could supersede that of Trump’s and the Republican’s “keep America great.”
Democrats are locked in an identity crisis. As the field narrows, the 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls seem not to be thinking in the line with the party’s interest but in line with promoting their agenda. One cannot reflect the true picture of things now, but as the elections draw nearer, the Democrats would eventually raise a flag bearer. I hope by that time, it won’t be too late as the Republicans are forging ahead day by day.
4 Reasons Why Trump is Likely to Secure a Second Term:
1. Economy:
An economy is an area of the production, distribution, or trade, and consumption of goods and services by different agents in a given geographical location. A country’s economy is a salient part of any nation. And people do take economics into account when casting their votes.
The economy of the United States is a highly developed market economy. It is the world’s largest economy by nominal GDP and the second-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). It also has the world’s eighth-highest per capita GDP (nominal) and the tenth-highest per capita GDP (PPP) in 2018.
A lot of electorates don’t have an in-depth comprehension of what the economy is and what economic policy is, so most of their mastery is feelings based. Do I feel richer? Am I being paid more? Do I feel more confident in my future? Therefore the mind-set of most American people is based on how the administration talks about the economy. The credence Trump depicts the American economy is limpid and a lot of people would be heartened by this.
Among Donald Trump’s economic achievements includes; signing several Congressional bills repealing Obama Administration regulations, signing a major $1.5 trillion tax cut into law that lowered both income and corporate taxes in addition to repealing significantly, taking actions to reform federal workforce rules and to empower workers over labor unions, continuing to oversee strong economic growth.
By March 2019, the economy under President Trump averaged lower unemployment than any other president at that point in their respective presidencies. In July 2019, the economic boom broke the record for the longest period of economic expansion in United States history.
2. Campaign Style:
Trump is a very good orator and a very eloquent man. Being the sitting president Trump stands on a very good vantage point. Incumbent presidents benefit from name recognition, experience, and an existing donor structure.
As president, Trump has always one way or the other continued to campaign ahead of time. Trump’s “keep America Great” slogan played a key role during his Presidential campaign and his continued use of that slogan even after election i.e. during his administration registers his intent to seek re-election in the subconscious of the American people.
3. Trump’s Stand:
Trump had a lot of support from religious bodies in the 2016 Presidential election and he is still doing his best to retain that stand by putting religious freedom on center stage and overturning the right to seek an abortion. America’s farmers have borne the brunt of China’s retaliation in the trade war that President Donald Trump launched in 2018. But they would still stand with him because of long term gains, and the possibility of relief.
4. Electoral College:
Even if Trump is not well-liked enough to win a greater number of votes, that doesn’t still debar his journey to the White House, and that is because of the Electoral College. Trump’s Electoral College edge could grow in 2020. The Electoral College system means even if the candidate doesn’t win the majority of votes cast, they can still win the presidency.
In 2016, Donald Trump won the presidency despite receiving nearly 3 million fewer votes than Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. In 2000, George W. Bush pulled off a similar trick. According to a new study, these are not flukes. They are the kind of results we should expect from the Electoral College.
The Electoral College profits Trump because Trump appeals to non-college educated white voters and these voters are exactly the ones concentrated at the upper Midwest and these are the states that tend to have more electoral votes. Hence Trump could lose the popular vote again and hold the White House.
Conclusion:
Republicans or Democrats, who wears the final crown? This is a rhetorical question that requires a rhetorical answer. Join the conversation today via our comment section below. Your comments are duly appreciated.
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-WINSALA Gbotemi.
-Financial Content Manager, Eagle Global Markets.
